Rep. Mikie Sherrill has an 8-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the race to become New Jersey’s next governor, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University (FDU) poll released Tuesday. The poll shows Sherrill leading among likely voters 45% to 37%, with 16% still undecided and 3% backing other candidates.
However, polling in the 2021 governor’s race proved unreliable, with several surveys significantly overstating Murphy’s margin over Ciattarelli, who ultimately lost by just three points.
Regardless, the FDU poll’s results suggest both candidates have largely unified their respective parties following contentious primaries. Ciattarelli, despite not receiving an endorsement from top primary challenger Bill Spadea, is carrying 86% of Republican voters. Sherrill, whose Democratic rivals have also withheld formal endorsements, is backed by 87% of Democrats.
The race for independents remains volatile. Sherrill leads among unaffiliated voters 30% to 23%, but a striking 41% remain undecided — a key factor in what could become a tight contest.
The stakes are high in this year’s election, with term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy set to leave office. No party has won three consecutive terms in New Jersey since the 1960s — a barrier Sherrill is hoping to break in November.
The FDU survey is the second independent snapshot of the general election since the primaries concluded. A Rutgers-Eagleton poll last month showed Sherrill with a commanding 20-point lead.
FDU also conducted a split-sample experiment in the poll, measuring how issue focus affects independent voters. Participants were divided into two groups: one received questions about New Jersey issues like energy and flooding, while the other was asked about national topics such as immigration and President Donald Trump. Ciattarelli’s support increased by 7 points among independents asked about local issues but dropped 4 points among those asked about national ones. Sherrill’s numbers among independents were relatively stable, dipping slightly when the focus was local and rising slightly when it was national.
“There’s a reason why Ciattarelli is focusing so much on local issues and trying not to talk about President Trump,” said FDU poll director Dan Cassino said. “The more nationalized this race is, the worse Ciattarelli does overall, even as it helps him a bit among Republicans.”
Both candidates have adopted messaging strategies that reflect these dynamics. Sherrill has highlighted Ciattarelli’s embrace of Trump — the president endorsed him during the GOP primary — while Ciattarelli has labeled Sherrill “Murphy 2.0.”