Democrat Mikie Sherrill holds a six-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli, according to a new StimSight Research poll conducted for InsiderNJ. Sherrill leads with 48% support among likely voters, compared to Ciattarelli’s 42%, with 1% favoring a third-party candidate and 9% still undecided.
Yet the race remains fluid: only 32% of Sherrill’s backers and 31% of Ciattarelli’s say they are firmly committed to their candidate, leaving significant room for movement in the coming months.
Economic Pressures Drive Voter Sentiment
Affordability and taxes dominate the list of voter concerns, cited by 53% and 43% of respondents respectively as top issues in the race. Sherrill and Ciattarelli are neck and neck among voters most concerned with affordability (36% to 34%). However, Ciattarelli holds a commanding lead—50% to 15%—among voters focused on cutting taxes.
Sherrill holds a slight edge on broader economic opportunity, with 54% saying she would better provide for New Jersey families compared to 49% for Ciattarelli. Concerns about protecting Social Security and Medicare—an issue tied to affordability for many—also ranked high among voters, at 30%.
Widespread Frustration with the Status Quo
New Jerseyans overwhelmingly feel the state is on the wrong track, with 63% expressing that view. Eight in ten voters say it’s time for a change in how the state is run, including 55% who say so strongly.
Despite her status as a Democrat, Sherrill edges Ciattarelli as the candidate more likely to bring positive change (53% to 47%). Her personal favorability ratings (47% favorable, 31% unfavorable) also surpass Ciattarelli’s (43% favorable, 39% unfavorable).
Voters Disillusioned with Both Parties
Both major parties face high unfavorability ratings—58% for Democrats and 55% for Republicans. While both Sherrill and Ciattarelli are seen as typical party figures (57% and 59% respectively), few voters believe either candidate will act independently of their party’s leadership.
Still, Sherrill holds an advantage in several character traits: she is viewed as more caring (45% to 31%), more trustworthy (43% to 33%), more optimistic (43% to 35%), and slightly more competent (42% to 39%). Ciattarelli, however, is seen as the stronger candidate (43% to 38%).
Leadership Vacuum Felt at All Levels
Job approval ratings for President Trump (44%) and Governor Phil Murphy (45%) are nearly identical, reflecting voter fatigue with political leadership across the board. When asked who’s to blame for New Jersey’s struggles, voters pointed fingers in all directions—37% blame state government, 27% the federal government, and 34% blame both equally.
“This isn’t a race about party loyalty,” said Patrick Murray of StimSight Research. “New Jersey voters are looking for someone who can actually ease their economic burdens—not just someone who takes shots at the other side.”
