Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holds an early advantage over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest, with a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll showing her ahead 51% to 31%, and 13% of voters still undecided. When leaners are included, her lead stretches to 56%-35%, but experts caution the numbers are far from set in stone.
Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, emphasized that the results should be seen as a “baseline” and not a prediction of November’s outcome, pointing to how dramatically polling shifted in New Jersey’s last governor’s race. “A lot can happen between now and November,” she noted, recalling how Ciattarelli came within three points of defeating Gov. Phil Murphy in 2021 after trailing by double digits earlier in the cycle.
Ciattarelli’s team quickly rejected the survey as unreliable and flawed. “From sampling adults instead of registered or likely voters to a turnout model that is pure fantasy, this poll is a steaming pile of shit,” said Chris Russell, the Republican’s chief strategist, arguing the methodology misses core voter sentiment.
The survey, conducted days after the June 10 primary, comes after both candidates faced weeks of negative ads. Sherrill is viewed favorably by 50% of voters, with 21% viewing her unfavorably. Ciattarelli remains more polarizing, with a 33%-42% favorable rating — a figure that could shift as voters refocus after a divisive primary.
Ciattarelli remains competitive on critical issues like taxes, where voters are essentially split: 39% trust Sherrill, 34% prefer Ciattarelli, and 14% see neither as strong on the issue. On the cost of living, Sherrill holds a 45%-29% advantage, but nearly a quarter of voters are still undecided or skeptical of both candidates, leaving Ciattarelli room to make inroads.
Trump’s influence also looms over the race, with 52% of voters saying his presidency is a major factor in their vote choice. Koning pointed out that while Trump’s brand may have helped Ciattarelli in the Republican primary, it remains to be seen how it will play in a general election — offering an opening for Ciattarelli to recalibrate his message to independent and moderate voters.
The Rutgers-Eagleton data shows Ciattarelli performing strongly among white voters, 44%-39%, and holding competitive numbers among independents on issues like taxes, crime, and the economy. On crime and safety, for example, he trails Sherrill by just two points, 39%-37%, suggesting room to grow among voters prioritizing public safety.
Koning summed it up: “Early polling gives us a snapshot, not a forecast. This race is still wide open.”