With New Jersey’s gubernatorial primaries drawing closer, a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll released this morning paints a starkly different picture for the two major parties: Republicans are rallying behind a clear frontrunner, while Democrats remain fractured across a crowded field.
The poll shows former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli leading the Republican primary with 42% support among Republican-leaning voters. That puts him far ahead of his main rival, conservative radio host Bill Spadea, who trails at 12%. State Senator Jon Bramnick, notable for his anti-Trump stance, lags at 4%, while little-known contractor Justin Barbera draws 3%, and former Englewood Cliffs Mayor Mario Kranjac registers 0% support. About 34% of Republican voters remain undecided.
On the Democratic side, the landscape is much murkier. Congresswoman Mikie Sherrill leads with 17%, but her advantage is slim and by no means commanding. Jersey City Mayor Steve Fulop follows with 12%, and New Jersey Education Association (teachers union) President Sean Spiller garners 10%. Rep. Josh Gottheimer and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka are tied at 9%, with former State Senate President Steve Sweeney rounding out the field at 7%. A significant 32% of Democratic-leaning voters are still undecided, leaving the primary wide open.
“We currently have a tale of two primaries,” observed Rutgers-Eagleton poll director Ashley Koning. “On the Republican side, a leading candidate is coming into focus, while on the Democratic side, there is no clear frontrunner.”
Indeed, Ciattarelli’s steady support mirrors findings from internal polling circulated by his campaign and allies in recent months. The former Assemblyman — who narrowly lost to Governor Phil Murphy in 2021 — is benefitting from strong name recognition within GOP circles and a relatively unified party base. Meanwhile, Spadea’s showing underscores his continued challenge in turning a media following into a viable statewide coalition.
One dynamic could further cement Ciattarelli’s lead: a Trump endorsement. The poll found 46% of Republican-leaning respondents would be more likely to vote for a Trump-endorsed candidate — compared to just 7% who would be less likely — highlighting the former president’s enduring sway over the party. Both Ciattarelli and Spadea are reportedly vying for Trump’s blessing, but if it comes, it could very well seal the primary.
On the Democratic side, Sherrill’s consistent if modest leads across various polls position her as the tentative frontrunner, but with the race so splintered and no candidate above 20%, the field remains volatile. With strong fundraising among all six contenders and diverse geographic and ideological bases, the outcome is anything but certain.
Adding another layer of complexity is a general lack of name recognition across the board. Among all registered voters — not just partisan respondents — none of the gubernatorial contenders scored favorability ratings above 20%. Sherrill fares best with a 20% favorable / 14% unfavorable rating, the only candidate with a net-positive image. Others, including Fulop (12%-12%), Gottheimer (18%-19%), and Baraka (15%-16%), are largely unknown or viewed neutrally. On the Republican side, Ciattarelli (18%-24%) and Spadea (8%-18%) face higher negatives.
Koning cautioned that the relatively low name recognition is typical for this early stage of a gubernatorial campaign. “Though not necessarily unusual at this stage in the game, candidates on both sides of the aisle still lack name recognition from a notable number of voters,” she said.
With just six weeks until the June 10 primary, the Democratic contest appears poised for an intense sprint to the finish, with money, turnout operations, and a few key endorsements likely to play decisive roles. The Republican side, however, looks increasingly like a coronation — unless a Trump endorsement shakes up the race.