New Jersey Republicans are returning their mail-in ballots at a faster rate than Democrats — an early signal of enthusiasm for GOP gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli as his race against Rep. Mikie Sherrill tightens in the final month before Election Day.
According to new data analyzed by DecisionDeskHQ’s director of political science Michael Pruser, Republican voters have so far returned 18.61% of their mail-in ballots, compared to 16.55% for Democrats. Independents, who make up a sizable portion of New Jersey’s electorate, have returned just 9.32% of their ballots.
The figures represent an early reversal of a longstanding trend in the Garden State, where Democrats have traditionally dominated mail-in voting.
Republicans’ strong early turnout comes amid signs of growing support for President Donald Trump in New Jersey. Trump has been polling ahead of outgoing Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, according to recent surveys, and GOP strategists say his rising favorability could help lift candidates down the ballot.
Democrats, meanwhile, still hold a sizable registration advantage — more than 2.39 million registered Democrats to 1.57 million Republicans, with 2.16 million independents, according to the Independent Voter Project.
The New Jersey governor’s race, once viewed as safely Democratic, has narrowed significantly in recent weeks. A series of new polls — including one from Emerson College — now show Sherrill and Ciattarelli virtually tied.
Sherrill’s lead in the RealClearPolitics polling average has fallen to 3.3 points, down from 8.3 points a month ago. In 2021, the RCP average underestimated Ciattarelli’s support by roughly five points in his closer-than-expected loss to Murphy.
Still, political analysts cautioned against overinterpreting early mail-in numbers.
“The problem with voting by mail is that you don’t know from one day to the next what you’re going to get,” Geller said. “Counties may be lagging behind and may suddenly produce lots and lots of ballots.”
Sherrill and Ciattarelli are set to face off in their second debate on Wednesday, a pivotal moment in a campaign that has become one of the most closely watched statewide races of 2025.
Election Day in New Jersey is November 4.
