A new poll shows Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding a 10-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in the upcoming New Jersey gubernatorial election.
The survey, conducted by Quantus Insights from Sept. 2 to 4, found Sherrill with 47% support among likely registered voters compared to 37% for Ciattarelli. The poll has a margin of error of ±4.3 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and included responses from 600 participants through a combination of opt-in online panels and SMS outreach.
The race is being closely watched as an indicator of broader national political trends heading into the 2026 midterm elections. New Jersey, which has historically leaned Democratic in statewide contests, has nevertheless shown some shifts in recent years. Republicans gained ground during the Trump era, with the state moving about 10 points to the right between 2020 and 2024.
Democrats are hoping to capitalize on President Trump’s low national approval ratings to energize their base, similar to the 2018 midterms. Republicans, meanwhile, see an opportunity to build on Trump’s gains and make inroads in traditionally blue territory.