The 2025 race for New Jersey governor is shaping up as one of the nation’s most competitive contests, with a new Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli tied at 43% each among likely voters. Eleven percent remain undecided — a pivotal bloc that could decide the Garden State’s future direction.
The poll underscores sharp demographic divides. Sherrill dominates among voters under 40, leading 58% to 24%. That edge narrows among voters in their 40s, where she holds a seven-point lead. But Ciattarelli takes command among older voters, leading 52% to 36% among those over 50 — a crucial turnout group in state elections.
A gender gap is also driving the deadlock. Women favor Sherrill by 10 points, while men back Ciattarelli by 12. Strikingly, women are more than twice as likely to be undecided (15% versus 6% for men), giving both campaigns a clear target audience in the closing stretch.
The fight between Sherrill, a four-term congresswoman, and Ciattarelli, the 2021 GOP nominee, is being shaped by two unpopular figures hovering over the race: Gov. Phil Murphy and President Donald Trump.
Murphy’s job approval has sunk to 35%, down five points since May, while Trump sits at 41% approval with 51% disapproving. Both candidates are trying to weaponize those numbers — Sherrill tying Ciattarelli to Trump, and Ciattarelli hammering Sherrill over Murphy’s stewardship of a state battered by affordability woes.
“The national-state split is at the heart of this campaign,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. “Sherrill is running against Trump, Ciattarelli is running against Murphy, and New Jersey voters don’t seem to like either of them.”
The survey shows economic anxiety is the defining issue for Garden State voters. A majority (51%) cite the economy as their top concern, far outpacing threats to democracy (13%), housing affordability (11%), healthcare (6%), immigration (5%), and crime (5%).
Property taxes — perpetually the state’s political third rail — remain a source of finger-pointing. Just 21% of voters say the governor is most responsible, with nearly half saying all levels of government share blame.
Utility bills are another flashpoint. Voters split over whether Gov. Murphy (22%) or utility companies (30%) bear responsibility, with sharp partisan divides: Democrats blame the companies, Republicans blame Murphy, and independents are split.
The poll also highlights a subtle but significant shift in voter sentiment toward the Trump administration. A slim majority of voters (51%) now say they want the next governor to stand up to Trump, compared to 47% in May. Meanwhile, 49% say they want cooperation with the White House — down from 53% four months ago.
That dynamic could help Sherrill, who has leaned into her anti-Trump credentials, but it also signals a highly polarized electorate where even small swings could reshape the race.
Beyond taxes and utilities, voters are split on school consolidation — an idea floated to reduce costs. Forty-six percent support merging districts, 22% oppose, and 32% are undecided. Parents with children in school are far more likely to oppose mergers (37%) than non-parents (17%), highlighting another policy flashpoint that could seep into the campaign.
With just weeks until Election Day, the New Jersey governor’s race is now a coin flip.