A poll conducted by Cygnal, a GOP-affiliated polling firm, indicates that New Jersey is still leaning heavily Democratic in the presidential race, with Vice President Kamala Harris holding a 12-point lead over former President Donald Trump, 52% to 40%. This would extend New Jersey’s streak of supporting Democratic presidential candidates, which has lasted for over three decades. However, Cygnal pollster Brock McCleary pointed out that Harris’s lead is notably narrower than President Joe Biden’s 16-point win in the state in 2020.
“Trump is already performing near his 2020 numbers, while Harris is underperforming Biden by 5%,” McCleary observed, noting that Harris appears to be losing some support among traditionally Democratic demographics, particularly women, diverse voters, and working- to middle-class households. According to McCleary, 40% of these voters have an unfavorable view of Harris.
The poll found that while Harris has a 50% favorability rating, she faces significant disapproval at 46%, although Trump’s numbers are worse, with a favorability ratio of 38%-59%.
The Cygnal poll also looked at the state’s U.S. Senate race, where Rep. Andy Kim leads Republican Curtis Bashaw by a substantial margin of 51% to 32%. Kim’s favorability rating stands at 40%, compared to 16% unfavorable, while Bashaw, who is still relatively unknown statewide, has a 13%-12% rating.
While Bashaw released an internal poll in August showing Kim’s lead at a closer 38%-33%, few other polls support the notion of a tight Senate race in New Jersey.
On a generic congressional ballot, New Jersey Democrats lead Republicans by 11 percentage points (51.5% to 40.3%), closely mirroring the 10-point margin Democrats achieved in the 2022 elections. Although 7th district Rep. Tom Malinowski lost his re-election bid that year, Democrats managed to secure 9 of the state’s 12 congressional seats.
Cygnal’s poll marks the first significant statewide look at New Jersey’s presidential race since Harris became the Democratic nominee, filling a gap in polling data for the state. Previous polls by Republican firms earlier this year suggested a closer race between Trump and Biden, but Harris’s candidacy appears to have reinvigorated Democratic support.