Jack Ciattarelli is closing the gap in New Jersey’s governor’s race, with a new Rutgers-Eagleton poll showing Rep. Mikie Sherrill holding a shrinking lead as the campaign enters its final stretch.
The survey gives Sherrill a 44%–35% advantage, with 17% still undecided. When undecided voters are pushed, her margin grows modestly to 47%–37%. But the results are a far cry from Rutgers-Eagleton’s previous July poll, which had Sherrill ahead by a lopsided 20 points.
The shift suggests the race is becoming far more competitive than earlier surveys indicated. Ciattarelli’s campaign, which blasted last month’s poll as unreliable, has long argued that once likely voter turnout is considered, the race would tighten — and the latest numbers appear to back that up.
Other pollsters have also shown a closer contest. A StimSight Research poll earlier this month found Sherrill with just a six-point edge, 48%–42%. Fairleigh Dickinson University had her leading 45%–37% in late July, and a Republican super PAC survey showed Sherrill up by only five, 47%–42%.
“As summer winds down and the campaigns enter the final months, the race for governor has tightened,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center. “Sherrill still has the edge, but the important takeaway is that the race is competitive and will continue to be in flux, in large part because there are still a notable number of undecideds.”
The latest Rutgers-Eagleton poll shows Ciattarelli with solid support among Republicans (81%), as well as a narrow advantage with white voters, 44%–38%. Independents remain nearly evenly split, with nearly one-third still undecided — a bloc Ciattarelli hopes to sway as Election Day nears.
The Republican nominee is also banking on history. In 2021, polls consistently showed Gov. Phil Murphy with a comfortable lead, yet Ciattarelli stunned observers by coming within three points of victory in a race that wasn’t called for days. He is now leaning on that momentum, portraying himself as well-positioned once again to defy expectations.
Sherrill continues to benefit from New Jersey’s Democratic tilt and strong margins among minority voters. Still, with her lead slipping and undecideds in play, analysts say the race remains far from settled.
Koning noted the uncertainty that looms over any survey: “Likely voters are always an unknown population, but especially given today’s political climate, shifting turnout dynamics in the state, and the race’s history-making potential, we simply do not know who will definitively turn out come Election Day.”