Jack Ciattarelli faces long odds in his second bid for New Jersey governor. Democrats hold a substantial registration edge, and no Republican has won the state’s top office since Chris Christie’s reelection in 2013. But Ciattarelli’s narrow 2021 loss and Donald Trump’s surprising 2024 gains have given Republicans a playbook they could finally crack the Democratic stronghold.
That blueprint, outlined by Politico, depends on combining two trends: Ciattarelli’s strong performance in the suburbs four years ago and Trump’s unexpected strength among Black and Hispanic voters last year.
Ciattarelli nearly shocked the political world in 2021 when he came within three points of defeating Gov. Phil Murphy. His campaign capitalized on frustration with pandemic restrictions and tapped into Republican gains in white, middle-class suburbs and exurbs. Those areas remain fertile ground for him in 2025.
But this time, with Murphy leaving office and no Covid-era anger to exploit, simply repeating his suburban showing will not be enough. Ciattarelli will need to broaden his coalition.
That’s where Trump’s 2024 performance looms large. The president made gains across majority-Black and majority-Hispanic municipalities in New Jersey, cutting into Democrats’ margins in cities like Camden, Paterson, and Newark.
If Ciattarelli can capture even a fraction of those voters, he could put the race within striking distance. His campaign is already making a concerted push: appearances in Hispanic-majority towns like Dover, meetings with Black clergy, and a sharpened economic message tailored to urban communities.
“When I go into our major urban centers, I ask the Ronald Reagan question,” Ciattarelli said recently. “‘Are you better off today than you were eight years ago?’ Who can possibly answer that yes?”
Rep. Mikie Sherrill, the Democratic nominee, still holds commanding leads among Black and Hispanic voters in early polls. But her weak primary performance in those communities has not gone unnoticed. She finished far behind Newark Mayor Ras Baraka in majority-Black areas and underperformed in heavily Hispanic precincts, raising questions about whether she can energize the base in November.
The Democratic National Committee has already poured $1.5 million into the state to shore up outreach to those constituencies. Sherrill has also leaned on Baraka, who is working with her campaign on policy but has yet to endorse.
To win, Ciattarelli doesn’t need to carry urban New Jersey. He just needs to close the gap. If he can repeat his suburban strength and slice a few more points off Democrats’ margins in majority-Black and Hispanic municipalities, the numbers could add up.
Republicans acknowledge the challenge: off-year elections have lower turnout, and Democrats remain dominant statewide. But Ciattarelli’s advisers argue the political environment is ripe for an upset, with high utility bills, inflation, and dissatisfaction with Democratic leadership giving him a sharper message than four years ago.
The GOP has not won a statewide race in New Jersey in over a decade. Yet, Ciattarelli’s close call in 2021 and Trump’s 2024 surge have created the contours of a path — one that runs through the suburbs and the cities alike.
For Democrats, that means Sherrill cannot afford to treat those communities as safe territory. For Ciattarelli, it means the best chance Republicans have had in years to flip New Jersey is staring right at him.