The final Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey in the 2025 New Jersey governor’s race shows a razor-thin gubernatorial race between Democrat Mikie Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Sherrill leads by a single point, 49% to 48%, among likely voters, with 2% still undecided.
According to Emerson’s Spencer Kimball, the gender divide has solidified heading into Election Day. “Men break for Ciattarelli by 16 points, while women break for Sherrill by 18 points,” Kimball said, noting that Ciattarelli’s lead among men has grown by four points since last month, while Sherrill’s advantage among women has expanded by eight.
The latest numbers suggest that both campaigns are heading into the final stretch in a statistical tie, underscoring the high stakes of Tuesday’s election.
The Emerson College Polling New Jersey survey was conducted October 25–27, 2025, among likely voters.