Top Democrats are sounding the alarm as New Jersey’s gubernatorial race — long considered a safe blue seat — has narrowed to a statistical dead heat, sparking a multimillion-dollar spending war and fresh doubts about Rep. Mikie Sherrill’s campaign just weeks before Election Day.
The high-stakes contest between Sherrill, a Navy veteran and four-term Democratic congresswoman, and Republican former Assemblyman Jack Ciattarelli has become one of the most expensive state races in U.S. history, already topping $72 million in spending, according to a Politico analysis of campaign and super PAC filings. Total expenditures could surpass $250 million by November 4 — a record-shattering sum in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly one million voters.
Democrats privately concede that Sherrill — once touted as a star recruit to succeed term-limited Gov. Phil Murphy — has struggled to define her message beyond her biography. “She’s got the résumé, but not the rhythm,” one Democratic strategist told Axios. “If we’re sweating bullets in New Jersey, imagine what that says about next year.”
Public and internal polls show the race tightening dramatically. An Emerson College poll found the two candidates neck and neck, while some Democratic polling shows Sherrill’s lead within the margin of error. Ciattarelli, who lost to Murphy by just three points in 2021, is gaining traction among independents and making quiet inroads in Black communities long considered Democratic strongholds.
The Republican’s campaign has also seized on a series of missteps by Sherrill — including a halting interview about her family’s finances and lingering questions about her graduation from the U.S. Naval Academy after a cheating scandal involving classmates. Sherrill insists she did nothing wrong, but the controversy has being dogging her.
Money is pouring into the race from both parties and national groups that see New Jersey as an early bellwether for 2026.
Sherrill has raised more than $7.3 million and secured the maximum in public matching funds, giving her access to an $18.5 million campaign cap. But her real advantage lies in outside help: the Democratic Governors Association’s super PAC, Greater Garden State, has pledged more than $20 million in TV, digital, and streaming ads, while the Democratic National Committee is investing another $3 million.
Ciattarelli, who was first to qualify for New Jersey’s $12.5 million public funding match, has pulled in $6.4 million — including a surge of donations after a strong debate performance on Sept. 21. Two Republican super PACs — the RGA-backed Restore New Jersey and Change NJ — have combined to spend roughly $11 million supporting his campaign.
In total, at least $72.3 million has already been committed in the general election — $42.4 million backing Sherrill and $29.9 million for Ciattarelli — blowing past the $60.5 million total spent in 2021.
“This is a real opportunity to win,” said Carlos Cruz, a spokesman for Change NJ. “We’re seeing energy in places Republicans haven’t been competitive in years.”
Behind closed doors, Democratic operatives acknowledge that Sherrill’s campaign has been plagued by uneven messaging and an overreliance on Washington consultants. Critics say she’s too cautious and hasn’t connected with voters on kitchen-table issues like inflation and energy costs.
“Mikie’s team is running this like a D.C. playbook — lots of helicopter photos, not enough Jersey grit,” one Democratic operative said, referencing her background as a Navy pilot.
Republicans, meanwhile, have hammered Sherrill with attacks linking her to high energy costs and ethical questions surrounding her stock trades, even launching a website titled MikieMadeMillions.com.
New Jersey’s shifting political winds have national Democrats worried. Donald Trump lost the state by 6 points in 2024 — down from a 15-point defeat in 2020 — and the GOP’s resurgence in the suburbs mirrors trends across the Northeast.
Ciattarelli, who has walked a careful line distancing himself from Trump’s rigged election claims while embracing his populist tone, has framed the race as a referendum on “failed Democratic leadership and runaway costs.”
Democrats counter that Ciattarelli’s record as a conservative lawmaker would mean deep cuts to education and women’s issues.
“Mikie Sherrill is running to lower costs and fight for working families — that’s been her message since Day One,” campaign manager Alex Ball said in a statement. “She’s been underestimated before, and she’ll win again.”
With national eyes on the Garden State, the outcome in New Jersey could signal how vulnerable Democrats are heading into the midterms.
“It’s not a five-alarm fire — but it’s not a cakewalk either,” said Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “If a state like New Jersey is this close, Democrats across the map should pay attention.”
Kate Gibbs, executive director of the New Jersey GOP, said the tight race proves her party’s momentum. “Republicans in this state are used to being outspent — but not outworked,” she said. “We don’t need equal footing to win. We just need voters to realize they have a choice.”
