New Jersey’s governor’s race has tightened into one of the nation’s closest contests, with a new Quantus Insights poll showing Democrat Mikie Sherrill clinging to a narrow 2.3-point lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli — just days after an Emerson College survey put the candidates in a flat tie.
The Quantus poll finds Sherrill at 48.1 percent and Ciattarelli at 45.8 percent. That’s a dramatic shift from earlier this month, when Sherrill enjoyed a 10-point advantage.
Two polls in less than a week confirm what operatives in both parties have begun to acknowledge: the race is a dead heat. Ciattarelli has surged on the strength of independents — leading Sherrill by 13 points with that bloc — and has cut into Democrats’ traditional edge among Black voters, where Sherrill’s support sits at 61 percent with a striking 15 percent undecided.
The Quantus survey underscores a divided electorate: Sherrill holds an 11-point lead among college graduates and a 12-point lead among women, but Ciattarelli counters with a 9-point advantage among men and a 5-point lead among non-college voters. Voters 45 to 64 — a high-turnout demographic — now back Ciattarelli by 6 points.
Seventy-six percent of voters say they want change, with only 8 percent believing New Jersey is on the right track. On the question of who they trust to deliver for the state, Sherrill and Ciattarelli are tied 50–50.
After two consecutive polls show no clear frontrunner, the race to succeed Gov. Phil Murphy has become a pure toss-up. With early voting just weeks away, both parties see New Jersey as a critical test of strength heading into 2026 — and Ciattarelli, once written off as an underdog, has put Republicans within striking distance of flipping the governor’s mansion.