An internal poll commissioned by Republican gubernatorial nominee Jack Ciattarelli shows a close race between him and Democratic nominee Rep. Mikie Sherrill, with Sherrill holding a narrow 45% to 42% lead. The poll, conducted in the days following New Jersey’s primary election, falls within the 4-point margin of error.
The poll, conducted by National Research—a New Jersey-based firm with ties to former President Donald Trump and former Governor Chris Christie—suggests a competitive general election contest. Ciattarelli is aiming to become the state’s first Republican governor since Christie left office in 2018. Sherrill, if elected, would be the first Democrat to secure a third consecutive gubernatorial term in New Jersey since the 1960s.
While internal polls are often released strategically by campaigns to highlight perceived momentum, the memo accompanying the survey argues Ciattarelli has a significant advantage among voters seeking political change. According to the memo, 54% of respondents believe New Jersey is on the wrong track, compared to 33% who say it’s headed in the right direction. Among those expressing dissatisfaction with the state’s direction, Ciattarelli reportedly leads Sherrill 72% to 14%, and by 87% to 6% among voters who want a governor who will “shake up Trenton.”
The poll also tested potential attack lines against Sherrill, including criticisms of her past stock trading. A spokesperson for Sherrill has previously stated that the congresswoman sold all individual stocks in 2020 and has taken proactive steps to avoid any perception of impropriety.
A separate pre-primary poll conducted by a pro-Democratic group showed Sherrill with a wider lead, 51% to 38%, underscoring the likelihood of a contentious and closely watched general election. The New Jersey governor’s race is expected to be one of the highest-profile contests in the country in 2025.